The Delta variant experience of India, which has a very low vaccination rate and the U.K., which has a relatively high vaccination rate, both show that Delta variant infections tend to rise quickly but also seem to dissipate rather quickly. Higher vaccination countries like the U.S. should see only a relatively slight delay in its economy more fully reopening.
The Delta variant has provided the Fed with greater latitude, enabling it to maintain its easy monetary policies. In its statement at the conclusion of its mid-week meeting, the Fed noted that the “path of the recovery continues to depend on the course of the virus.”
This is a very opportunistic type of market environment and investors must “seize the day.” When the opportunity presents itself, one must act. In this market, we simply can’t afford to wait for an “appropriate” catalyst.
The question should really be, what’s behind many masks? Overall U.S. equity averages such as the S&P 500 have recently exhibited very low measures of volatility, but underneath the surface remains rather elevated volatility between sectors.
The latest data release could be the next determinant of financial markets’ directions. Data might confirm certain opinions while dispelling others. Any news concerning labor markets, wages, and inflation (both price increases and expectations) will be closely scrutinized.
By adopting a more hawkish posture on its monetary policies, the Fed increased the likelihood of volatility in financial markets, especially among interest rates and currencies. But not yet—predictable economic and inflation data kept interest rates and the U.S. dollar rather stable this week, and equities continued higher.
It looks like inflation matters after all—at least for one day. After its June 16 meeting, the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric turned much more hawkish.
The pandemic revealed the fragility of the world’s interconnected economies and made “supply chain disruption” a buzzword. Companies now strive to have at least some supply chains more local and diversified, but a more diverse set of supply chains most likely will be inflationary at the margin.
The U.S.’s fiscal and monetary policy response has been massive, quick—and potentially fertile for unintended consequences. At the same time, cryptocurrency has been on a roller coaster, while the relatively calmer rides of equities and sector rotations remain somewhat unpredictable.
While there’s overwhelming evidence of inflation, the debate continues as to whether price increases are transitory or will prove to be persistent.
John Moody is Chief Executive Officer of EdgeCo Holdings. Under his leadership, EdgeCo is evolving a new national model to service retirement plan clients built on an expert organization leveraging best available technologies. The goal is greater personal service combined with cost-efficient processes that help people achieve better retirement outcomes. Prior to launching EdgeCo, John co-founded and was president of Matrix Financial Solutions, a leading custodian and mutual fund trading provider. He is considered a pioneer in the “open architecture” movement within the 401(k) industry and has long championed the need to create more flexibility and transparency in the system. In his more than 30 years in industry, John has served on the boards of CiKR (Council of Independent Record Keepers) and SPARK (Society of Pension Administrators and Record Keepers) and has used these platforms to champion industry initiatives.
Kevin serves as the Chief Administrative Officer of EdgeCo, working with Senior Management on the acquisition, integration and leadership of financial services organizations. He started his career in the private practice of law as a commercial litigator with the Stafford, Rosenbaum Law Firm before joining the legal department of a Fortune 1000 organization – CUNA Mutual Group. At CUNA, Kevin lead the Investment and Litigation functions in the role of Deputy General Counsel, lead the Employee Benefits business unit and then ascending to the role of President of CUNA Brokerage Services, Inc. where he lead the Sales, Operations and Compliance functions.
Tim has been in the financial services industry since he graduated from John Carroll University, Cleveland, OH in 1984. His career began with Federated Investors, Inc. where he worked with banks, savings and loans, and trust departments representing asset management and trust investment services. From there, he spent time with Mellon Bank in the global cash management division where he consulted for Fortune 500 companies in New York and Connecticut. Tim also held various management positions with the Federal Home Loan Bank and Bisys Fund Services where he concentrated on raising bank capital and lending services as well as product management and delivery of investment products to the institutional buy-side of the street. In 1995, he co-founded Mid Atlantic Institutional Shares, Inc. (“MAIS”) where he was president and CEO. MAIS quickly became one of the most prominent trading platforms in the nation, focusing on the TPA, corporate, and trust department marketplace. It grew to over $30 billion in client assets under administration. In November 2002, Mid Atlantic Institutional Shares, Inc. was sold to SunGard and combined its product and services with SunGard’s STN Funds where Tim then served as president. In 2004 Tim, along with several other key industry figures, developed a company that has become Mid Atlantic Trust Company (“MATC”). This company was designed to complement the services MAIS had offered to its TPA and trust clientele. It currently offers directed trustee, custody, sub-custody, paying agent, and reporting services for the retirement and trust space. Tim now serves on the executive committee of the Mid Atlantic companies and as president of Mid Atlantic Trust Company and is concentrating his efforts on the institutional and retirement plan administration marketplaces and advisor recruiting.
